SIDC ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC ursigram |
| SIDC code | tot |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 May 14 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40514 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 May 2024, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 212 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 010 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours with an X1.7 flare produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group 86). NOAA AR 3664 and NOAA AR 3674 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 3) produced all of the M-class flaring activity of the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 3664 is expected to continue its flaring activity at an M-class level with a chance of an isolated X-class flare. NOAA AR 3674 is expected to reduce its activity to the C-class level. Coronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in STEREO-A/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO images starting from yesterday 09:44 UTC. It is estimated to be Earth-directed and is expected to arrive at Earth later today. Solar wind: During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) speed continue its drop and the magnetic conditions continue to be undisturbed. The SW speed dropped from 760 to 500 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 and 9 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -3 and 7 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between directed away and towards the Sun. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive at Earth late today and cause significant disruption. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally unsettled to quiet (NOAA Kp 3+ to 2- and K BEL 3 to 2) during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours they are expected to reach active or minor storm levels as a result of the expected arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, increased above the 10 pfu threshold level since yesterday 14:20 UTC. It is expected to stay above this alert level for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, increased to levels around the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to remain close to the alert level for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence increased during the past 24 hours but remain at low levels. It is expected remain at the same level in the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 193, BASED ON 13 STATIONS. 99999 SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 May 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 252 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 215 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019 AK WINGST : 025 ESTIMATED AP : 033 ESTIMATED ISN : 225, BASED ON 22 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 13 1256 1311 1323 ////// M3.7 86/3664 13 1732 1747 1823 S10E43 M1.0 SF 03/3674 13 2148 2159 2207 ////// M1.5 86/3664 III/2 14 0203 0209 0219 ////// X1.7 86/3664 III/2II/2 END UMAGF 30503 40514 1004/ 13068 1/019 23333 32212 UMAGF 31523 40514 0000/ 13004 1/025 25533 34432 BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.