GEOALERT SIDC
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | GEOALERT SIDC |
| SIDC code | xut |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 May 13 1258 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU134 UGEOA 30512 40513 1258/ 9930/ 12132 21132 30132 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 13 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 218 / AP: 013 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 210 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 006 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours with almost all registered activity emitted from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group 86). The most notable activity was an X1.0 flare detected yesterday at 16:26 UTC, an M6 flare today at 09:44 UTC and an M4 yesterday at 20:32 UTC. NOAA AR 3676 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma) and 3679 (magnetic configuration Alpha) became active during the past 24 hours, producing an M1 flare each. Further M-class flaring activity is expected from NOAA AR 3664 and probably from NOAA AR 3676 and 3679. X-class flaring activity form NOAA AR 3664 is also possible in the next 24 hours. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. Two CME observed yesterday at 02:00 UTC and 03:48 UTC are not likely to be Earth-directed. Solar wind: During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) speed remained high, however, the magnetic conditions have returned to undisturbed levels. The SW speed dropped from 980 to 620 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 to 11 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 9 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun. In the next 24 hours the SW speed is expected to drop gradually and the geomagnetic conditions to remain mild. One or two glancing blows from passing Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) are expected in the next 24 hours, but they will most likely have a very minor effect. Geomagnetism: The global geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm levels (NOAA Kp 6- to 6+) during the period from 12 May 21:00 UTC to 13 May 06:00 UTC but they have since dropped to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3-). The local geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (K BEL 5) yesterday at 21:00-24:00 UTC but they also now dropped to unsettled (K BEL 3) levels. In the next 24 hours, they are likely to remain at the same levels and possibly increase to active levels (K=4) for short periods of time, both globally and locally. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, continue its drop and was below the 10 pfu threshold level during the last 24 hours. It is likely that it will continue its gradual drop in the next 24 hours, however, there is a chance of a new proton event and an increase in flux above the alert level. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert level during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 227, BASED ON 18 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 40513 1258/ 12/// 1//// 2222/ 3046/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 12 1227 1241 1254 S09E78 M1.6 SF 86/3664 VI/1 12 1340 1347 1349 S09E78 M1.0 SF ///3679 12 1349 1356 1408 S21W70 M1.5 SF 86/3664 12 1611 1626 1638 S18W72 X1.0 1F 86/3664 12 2017 2032 2049 S18W74 M4.8 SN 86/3664 III/2VI/1 12 2201 2206 2212 S16W80 M1.1 SF 86/3664 VI/1 12 2214 2218 2224 S21E11 M1.1 SF ///3676 12 2300 2310 2314 S18W77 M1.0 SF 86/3664 III/1VI/1 13 0123 0133 0138 S20W72 M1.2 SF 86/3664 13 0806 0820 0823 S19W80 M1.2 SF 86/3664 13 0823 0829 0833 S19W80 M1.4 SF /////// 13 0847 0933 0936 S21E06 M4.9 SF 86/3664 CTM/1II/2 13 0848 0944 1057 S20W81 M6.6 SF 86/3664 CTM/1II/2IV/2III/2 END UGEOR 30512 40513 1258/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 31405 13070 25242 01003 30808 11307 02012 20621 24418 03005 25013 21306 04002 16008 12302 05002 17417 13402 06004 27418 24404 07003 18014 2/801 86065 37719 59613 92007 43427 2/803 93004 41120 21307 94005 41423 25407 95006 11419 22305 96002 23809 2/801 97008 34614 25413 98001 34203 0/101 99001 41326 01202 USSPS 81202 11061 15432 38231 35618 57665 45015 40727 2/802 46010 11418 21407 48003 11524 11303 47009 14118 31404 49004 26510 2/801 50008 27514 3/802 USSPS 32404 11053 12722 56108 34818 57628 58000 48508 0/101 62009 40826 3/802 63002 11316 21307 64004 14117 31404 65001 11525 21302 66002 26508 2/801 67003 27713 31302 USSPS 21305 11180 16732 80329 35618 57636 87018 41427 5/803 88002 11019 31408 89002 10724 31306 90010 13418 21403 92004 25710 1/801 93015 27014 31306 94006 32515 31304 95008 22135 01210 UMAGF 30503 40513 1004/ 12062 1/044 23322 34545 UMAGF 31523 40513 0000/ 12003 1/046 26644 33356 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.